Pokémon TCG pull rates: the open dataset

How many packs you need to open, on average, for each rarity of 128 Pokémon sets. Sourced, downloadable, reusable.

128
sets: 381
sources cited: CC BY 4.0
license

Free to reuse, with a link

This data is published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license (CC BY 4.0): you may copy, adapt and republish it, including commercially, as long as you credit Poké EV with a link to this page. CC BY 4.0

Cite this dataset

Poké EV (2026). Pokémon TCG pull rates. https://pokeev.com/en/data

HTML link

<a href="https://pokeev.com/en/data">Pokémon TCG pull rates</a>

How to read these numbers

"1 in 20" means you need twenty packs on average to pull one card of that rarity. It is the expected count per pack, computed slot by slot from public opening samples and official rates where they exist. A set with no reliable source has no row: nothing is extrapolated.

Set	Rarest pull	Confidence	Sources
Base Set	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Low confidence	4
Jungle	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Medium confidence	4
Fossil	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Medium confidence	4
Base Set 2	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Low confidence	4
Team Rocket	Secret Rare 1 in 91 packs	Low confidence	4
Gym Heroes	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Low confidence	4
Gym Challenge	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Low confidence	4
Neo Genesis	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Low confidence	3
Neo Discovery	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Medium confidence	5
Neo Revelation	Shining 1 in 24 packs	Low confidence	3
Neo Destiny	Shining 1 in 16 packs	Medium confidence	5
Legendary Collection	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Medium confidence	4
Expedition Base Set	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Medium confidence	4
Aquapolis	Secret Rare 1 in 36 packs	Medium confidence	6
Skyridge	Secret Rare 1 in 11 packs	Medium confidence	4
EX Ruby & Sapphire	Rare Holo ex 1 in 6 packs	Medium confidence	5
EX Sandstorm	Rare Holo ex 1 in 6 packs	Medium confidence	4
EX Dragon	Secret Rare 1 in 36 packs	Medium confidence	4
EX Team Magma vs Team Aqua	Secret Rare 1 in 125 packs	Medium confidence	4
EX Hidden Legends	Secret Rare 1 in 71 packs	Low confidence	6
EX FireRed & LeafGreen	Secret Rare 1 in 36 packs	Low confidence	6
EX Team Rocket Returns	Gold Star 1 in 71 packs	Low confidence	6
EX Deoxys	Secret Rare 1 in 476 packs	Medium confidence	5
EX Emerald	Secret Rare 1 in 120 packs	Medium confidence	4
EX Unseen Forces	Gold Star 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	4
EX Delta Species	Secret Rare 1 in 71 packs	Low confidence	4
EX Legend Maker	Gold Star 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	5
EX Holon Phantoms	Secret Rare 1 in 100 packs	Low confidence	4
EX Crystal Guardians	Gold Star 1 in 71 packs	Low confidence	6
EX Dragon Frontiers	Gold Star 1 in 71 packs	Low confidence	7
EX Power Keepers	Gold Star 1 in 24 packs	Low confidence	6
Diamond & Pearl	Level X 1 in 36 packs	Low confidence	3
Mysterious Treasures	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	5
Secret Wonders	Level X 1 in 36 packs	Low confidence	5
Great Encounters	Level X 1 in 36 packs	Low confidence	6
Majestic Dawn	Level X 1 in 36 packs	Low confidence	4
Legends Awakened	Level X 1 in 18 packs	Low confidence	6
Stormfront	Shiny (secret) 1 in 45 packs	Medium confidence	5
Platinum	Shiny (secret) 1 in 45 packs	Low confidence	5
Rising Rivals	Secret Rare 1 in 36 packs	Low confidence	6
Supreme Victors	Secret Rare 1 in 71 packs	Low confidence	6
Arceus	Shiny (secret) 1 in 45 packs	Medium confidence	5
HeartGold & SoulSilver	Ultra Rare (full art) 1 in 36 packs	Low confidence	6
HS—Unleashed	Ultra Rare (full art) 1 in 111 packs	Low confidence	5
HS—Undaunted	Ultra Rare (full art) 1 in 108 packs	Low confidence	5
HS—Triumphant	Secret Rare 1 in 216 packs	Medium confidence	5
Call of Legends	Rare Holo 1 in 3 packs	Low confidence	5
Black & White	Secret Rare 1 in 71 packs	Medium confidence	5
Emerging Powers	Ultra Rare (full art) 1 in 18 packs	Low confidence	6
Noble Victories	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	4
Next Destinies	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	5
Dark Explorers	Secret Rare 1 in 108 packs	Low confidence	6
Dragons Exalted	Secret Rare 1 in 120 packs	Medium confidence	6
Dragon Vault	Secret Rare 1 in 25 packs	Medium confidence	5
Boundaries Crossed	Secret Rare 1 in 71 packs	Low confidence	5
Plasma Storm	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Medium confidence	6
Plasma Freeze	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	6
Plasma Blast	Secret Rare 1 in 112 packs	Medium confidence	5
Legendary Treasures	Secret Rare 1 in 71 packs	Medium confidence	5
XY	Ultra Rare (full art) 1 in 12 packs	Low confidence	5
Flashfire	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	6
Furious Fists	Secret Rare 1 in 100 packs	Medium confidence	5
Phantom Forces	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	5
Primal Clash	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	6
Double Crisis	Ultra Rare (full art) 1 in 9 packs	Medium confidence	4
Roaring Skies	Secret Rare 1 in 120 packs	Medium confidence	4
Ancient Origins	Secret Rare 1 in 52 packs	Medium confidence	6
BREAKthrough	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	7
BREAKpoint	Secret Rare 1 in 125 packs	Medium confidence	5
Generations	Ultra Rare (full art) 1 in 2.8 packs	Low confidence	7
Fates Collide	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	5
Steam Siege	Secret Rare 1 in 111 packs	Medium confidence	7
Evolutions	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	2
Sun & Moon	Secret Rare 1 in 44 packs	Medium confidence	5
Guardians Rising	Secret Rare 1 in 42 packs	Medium confidence	6
Burning Shadows	Secret Rare 1 in 39 packs	High confidence	4
Shining Legends	Secret Rare 1 in 67 packs	Medium confidence	5
Crimson Invasion	Secret Rare 1 in 72 packs	Low confidence	4
Ultra Prism	Secret Rare 1 in 55 packs	Medium confidence	5
Forbidden Light	Secret Rare 1 in 55 packs	Medium confidence	8
Celestial Storm	Secret Rare 1 in 39 packs	Medium confidence	6
Dragon Majesty	Secret Rare 1 in 45 packs	Low confidence	5
Lost Thunder	Secret Rare 1 in 42 packs	Medium confidence	5
Team Up	Secret Rare 1 in 40 packs	Medium confidence	3
Unbroken Bonds	Secret Rare 1 in 40 packs	Medium confidence	4
Unified Minds	Secret Rare 1 in 45 packs	Medium confidence	5
Hidden Fates	Secret Rare 1 in 59 packs	Medium confidence	5
Cosmic Eclipse	Secret Rare 1 in 45 packs	Low confidence	4
Sword & Shield	Secret Rare 1 in 47 packs	High confidence	2
Rebel Clash	Secret Rare 1 in 41 packs	High confidence	2
Darkness Ablaze	Secret Rare 1 in 49 packs	High confidence	2
Champion's Path	Secret Rare 1 in 35 packs	Low confidence	2
Vivid Voltage	Secret Rare 1 in 42 packs	Medium confidence	2
Shining Fates	Secret Rare 1 in 48 packs	Medium confidence	2
Battle Styles	Secret Rare 1 in 52 packs	Medium confidence	2
Chilling Reign	Secret Rare 1 in 49 packs	Medium confidence	2
Evolving Skies	Secret Rare 1 in 49 packs	High confidence	2
Celebrations	Secret Rare 1 in 271 packs	Low confidence	2
Fusion Strike	Secret Rare 1 in 52 packs	Medium confidence	3
Brilliant Stars	Rare Holo VMAX 1 in 53 packs	Medium confidence	3
Astral Radiance	Rare Holo VMAX 1 in 122 packs	High confidence	2
Pokémon GO	Rare Holo VMAX 1 in 46 packs	Medium confidence	1
Lost Origin	Rare Holo VMAX 1 in 79 packs	High confidence	2
Silver Tempest	Rare Holo VMAX 1 in 72 packs	High confidence	2
Crown Zenith	Secret Rare 1 in 67 packs	Medium confidence	3
Scarlet & Violet	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 54 packs	High confidence	2
Paldea Evolved	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 57 packs	High confidence	2
Obsidian Flames	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 52 packs	High confidence	2
151	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 51 packs	High confidence	3
Paradox Rift	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 82 packs	High confidence	2
Paldean Fates	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 62 packs	High confidence	3
Temporal Forces	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 139 packs	High confidence	2
Twilight Masquerade	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 146 packs	High confidence	3
Shrouded Fable	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 144 packs	Medium confidence	2
Stellar Crown	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 137 packs	High confidence	3
Surging Sparks	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 188 packs	High confidence	2
Prismatic Evolutions	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 80 packs	High confidence	3
Journey Together	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 137 packs	High confidence	2
Destined Rivals	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 149 packs	High confidence	3
Black Bolt	Black & White Rare 1 in 496 packs	Medium confidence	2
White Flare	Black & White Rare 1 in 496 packs	Medium confidence	2
Mega Evolution	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 1,259 packs	High confidence	3
Phantasmal Flames	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 1,259 packs	High confidence	3
Ascended Heroes	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 540 packs	High confidence	3
Perfect Order	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 1,786 packs	High confidence	3
Chaos Rising	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 1,100 packs	Medium confidence	3
Pitch Black	Hyper Rare (gold) 1 in 1,786 packs	Low confidence	3
30th Celebration	RGB Rare 1 in 7,063 packs	Medium confidence	5

What the dataset does not include

Card prices: they are TCGplayer's and Cardmarket's readings, and belong to them.
EV history: it will be published once it has a plausibility check.

Methodology & transparency About