Question 1

What is EV (Expected Value)?

Accepted Answer

Expected Value is the mathematical expectation of the value of the cards you pull when opening a product. Concretely: the sum, over every card in the set, of (probability of pulling that card) × (its market value). It's what you'd average by opening a very large number of identical products. Any single rip can land far above or far below it.

Poké EV is a statistical estimation tool. It is not financial or investment advice. Market prices and pull rates move constantly; open your products for the fun of it first.

Question 2

How exactly is EV computed?

Accepted Answer

We model each booster slot by slot: every slot has a probability distribution over rarities (documented per set), and within a rarity every card is equally likely. Pack EV = Σ pull rate × value. Booster box EV = pack EV × the real number of packs (usually 36). ETB EV = pack EV × the box's pack count. Cards with no quoted price count as zero: our EV is a floor, not a ceiling.

Question 3

Where do prices come from?

Accepted Answer

From a daily snapshot of market prices aggregated by TCGdex: Cardmarket (the European market, in euros) and TCGPlayer (the US market, in dollars). In English we show the TCGPlayer market price; in French, the Cardmarket trend price. When a card isn't quoted on one marketplace, we convert the other at the day's exchange rate so the value stays real. The snapshot timestamp is shown everywhere and price freshness feeds the confidence index.

Question 4

Where do pull rates come from?

Accepted Answer

The API doesn't provide them. They come from a versioned static dataset, one file per set, built from public quantitative sources: large community opening campaigns (TCGplayer Infinite, PokeBeach, JustInBasil…), and official Japanese rates where they exist. Every file cites its sources and carries a confidence level (high / medium / low).

Question 5

Why do some sets show "EV unavailable"?

Accepted Answer

Because no reliable quantitative source documents their pull rates (true of most older sets). Rather than inventing probabilities, we show nothing: a wrong number is worse than no number. The catalog still lists every set, and EV will appear as soon as a sourced dataset exists.

Question 6

How is the OPEN / KEEP verdict decided?

Accepted Answer

A single comparison: your price paid against the opening EV. If the booster, ETB or booster box has an expected value above what you paid, it's OPEN. Otherwise KEEP, with the negative margin displayed so you know exactly where you stand. The sealed market price is shown for reference (resale value) but never changes the verdict.

Question 7

What does the probability of profit mean?

Accepted Answer

It's the probability that the total value of your pulls exceeds what you paid. EV is an average; a single booster's variance is huge (it's all about the big hit). We approximate the distribution of the sum of packs with a normal law (central limit theorem): reliable for a 36-pack box, indicative for a single pack.

Question 8

How do I read the confidence index?

Accepted Answer

It blends three weighted components: pull-rate quality (40%), the share of the set's cards with a quoted price (35%), and price snapshot freshness (25%). Above 80 the data is solid; 55–80 is decent; below that, take the number with a grain of salt.

Question 9

Do reverse holos, energies and ETB goodies count?

Accepted Answer

Reverse slots are modeled with the value of the matching commons/uncommons, and premium replacements (illustration rares, ACE SPEC…) get their documented share of the odds. Basic energies count as zero. For ETBs, V1 values the packs inside; accessories (dice, sleeves…) are not valued.

Question 10

Is this financial advice?

Accepted Answer

No. Poké EV is a statistical estimation tool for informational purposes. Card prices are volatile, pull rates are community estimates, and EV doesn't predict any single opening. Never put in money you can't afford to lose. And open boosters for the fun of it first.

FAQ

What is EV (Expected Value)?+

How exactly is EV computed?+

Where do prices come from?+

Where do pull rates come from?+

Why do some sets show "EV unavailable"?+

How is the OPEN / KEEP verdict decided?+

What does the probability of profit mean?+

How do I read the confidence index?+

Do reverse holos, energies and ETB goodies count?+

Is this financial advice?+